Apple started taking pre-orders for Vision Pro on January 19th, with shipments set to begin on February 2nd, a $3,499 device with no keyboard and no mouse, in a market that does not exist yet, the question is whether Apple can create the market, as it did with iPhone and iPad
I think Apple is betting on spatial computing being the next interaction paradigm, where you look at things in space rather than touch a flat screen, the Vision Pro's hand and eye tracking removes the need for a physical controller, you look at what you want to interact with and pinch to select it
At the software level, applications can exist anywhere in your physical space, not just within a rectangular screen, Apple believes this is where personal computing goes, the Vision Pro is version one of that bet, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out
SwiftUI applications designed for iPhone and iPad run on Vision Pro as floating flat windows, which is useful but not spatial, visionOS-native applications that use RealityKit can place 3D content in the real world, understand the room's geometry, and anchor virtual objects to real surfaces
For example, using RealityKit, developers can create 3D models that can be manipulated in real space, with the device tracking the user's hands and eyes to determine the interaction, this level of interaction requires significant investment in both software and hardware, with Apple using custom-designed chips like the R1 to enable the necessary processing power, at a cost of around $100 per chip, which is a significant portion of the overall device cost
The developer bet is that the visionOS SDK is compelling enough that developers invest in building experiences that are not possible on a flat screen, Apple's track record on getting developers to invest in new platforms is strong, so I think they have a good chance of making it work, with tools like Xcode and the visionOS simulator making it easier for developers to test and debug their applications, and with a large community of developers already familiar with Swift and other Apple technologies
A significant portion of the first-wave pre-orders came from enterprise customers evaluating Vision Pro for specific workflows, reports from early enterprise buyers focused on design review, surgical planning, industrial maintenance, and field services, these are use cases where spatial data visualisation has obvious value, for instance, in design review, Vision Pro can be used to project 3D models of buildings or products onto a table or wall, allowing teams to collaborate more effectively, with some companies already reporting a 30% reduction in design review time using similar spatial computing technologies
The $3,499 price is a rounding error in a deployment budget for these enterprise use cases, consumer adoption at that price is uncertain, but enterprise adoption for specific high-value workflows is a different calculation, and one that could make sense for Apple, especially considering the potential for increased productivity and reduced costs, with some estimates suggesting that spatial computing could save companies up to $1,000 per employee per year in certain industries
Microsoft HoloLens lost $500M before Microsoft significantly scaled back its ambitions, Meta's Quest, despite strong sales numbers, has not produced the enterprise productivity applications Meta hoped for, Google Glass ended in quiet retreat, the AR/VR market has produced several technically impressive devices that found no mainstream adoption, in contrast, Apple's focus on the enterprise market and its existing relationships with large companies could help Vision Pro avoid a similar fate
Apple's hypothesis is that the failure mode was software and interaction design, not the concept, Vision Pro is a test of that hypothesis, and one that will be closely watched by the industry, I think it is an interesting bet, and one that could pay off for Apple